This course aims to teach how to choose the appropriate forecasting method under different demand conditions, to predict forecasting errors and to learn the relationship between forecast production planning. Students will learn about time series and time series estimation methods in this course.
Prerequisite(s)
None
Corequisite(s)
None
Special Requisite(s)
None
Instructor(s)
Assist. Prof. Dr. Hatice Nazan Çağlar
Course Assistant(s)
Schedule
The course is not offered in this semester.
Office Hour(s)
Teaching Methods and Techniques
Lecture, Discussion, Exercise, Case Studies, PP Presentation
Principle Sources
Sevüktekin, M. & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2006). Ekonometrik Zaman Serisi Analizi: E-Views Uygulamalı. Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
Çekerol, G. S. & Ulukan, A. (2012). Kantitatif Tahmin Yöntemleri. Nisan Yayınları.
Yenersoy, G. (2015). Üretim Planlama ve Kontrol. Papatya Yayıncılık.
Other Sources
Case studies and lecture notes to be given by the lecturer are among the other resource
Course Schedules
Week
Contents
Learning Methods
1. Week
What is Time Series and Demand Forecasting?
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation
2. Week
The Importance of Forecast for Business
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation
3. Week
Qualitative Forecasting Methods
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation
4. Week
Delphi Method
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation, Case Studies
5. Week
Quantitative Estimation Methods
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation
6. Week
Stable Demand Methods
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation
7. Week
Stable Demand Methods
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation
8. Week
Increasing and Decreasing Demand Methods
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation, Case Studies
9. Week
Midterm Exam Week
Assessment
10. Week
Midterm Exam Week
Assessment
11. Week
Seasonal Demand Methods
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation, Case Studies
12. Week
Seasonal and Trend Including Forecasts
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation, Case Studies
13. Week
Estimating the prediction error
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation, Case Studies
14. Week
Estimating the tracking signal
Lecture, Discussion, PP Presentation, Case Studies
15. Week
Final Exam Week
Assessment
16. Week
Final Exam Week
Assessment
17. Week
Final Exam Week
Assessment
Assessments
Evaluation tools
Quantity
Weight(%)
Midterm(s)
1
50
Final Exam
1
50
Program Outcomes
PO-1
To define his/her competencies using the theoretical and practical knowledge he/she acquired in the field of Economics and to use these competencies in practice.
PO-2
To discuss concepts and ideas in the field of Economics with scientific methods, to develop hypotheses, to interpret and evaluate the data obtained.
PO-3
To develop solution suggestions for complex and/or unpredictable problems encountered in practice, to report and present these suggestions in accordance with the academic publication rules.
PO-4
To identify regional and global issues/problems, to perform analyses based on scientific data and research, and to develop solution suggestions.
PO-5
To determine the learning needs in the field of Economics, to evaluate the acquired knowledge and skills with a critical approach, and to use this knowledge and skills to develop economic policies.
PO-6
To inform relevant people and institutions on issues related to the field of Economics and to gain the ability to convey written and verbal solutions to problems.
PO-7
To convey his/her thoughts and suggestions in the field of Economics to experts and non-experts by supporting them with quantitative and qualitative data, to discuss and to contribute to the development of new policies by revising suggestions according to the feedback he/she receives.
PO-8
To benefit from other disciplines that form the basis of the field of Economics, to develop multidisciplinary approaches by associating these disciplines with his/her knowledge in the field of Economics, to produce project and publications.
PO-9
To define the differences and relationships between classical and modern theories of economics and to observe the distinctions between classical and modern economic policies and to evaluate the compatibility of these policies with economic and social issues.
PO-10
To read and comprehend foreing news sources about economics being fluent in a foreign language, to scan the economic literature and to follow the most current approaches in this field.
PO-11
To take into account scientific and ethical values in the stages of collecting, interpreting and announcing economic data and carrying out statistical/econometric studies using these data, and also to carry out the publication process in accordance with academic publishing principles.
Learning Outcomes
LO-1
To recognize increasing and decreasing demand forecast methods.
