To consider the ever-present uncertainties of an engineering design in determining the problem, obtaining the available information and its evaluation and application; introduction of the identification and/or minimization of unwanted outcomes (reliability) through probabilistic theory.
Prerequisite(s)
-
Corequisite(s)
-
Special Requisite(s)
-
Instructor(s)
-
Course Assistant(s)
-
Schedule
The course is not opened for this semester.
Office Hour(s)
The course is not opened for this semester.
Teaching Methods and Techniques
Lecture, discussion
Principle Sources
Probability Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2. Baskı, A.H.S. Ang, W.H. Tang, John Wiley& Sons, 2007.
Mühendislikte Güvenilirlik ve Risk Analizi, Mehmetçik Bayazıt, Birsen Yayınevi, 2007.
Mühendislikte Olasılık, İstatistik, Risk ve Güvenilirlik, Altay Gündüz, Küre Basım Yayım, 1996.
Probability Concepts in Engineering: Planning and Design, Vol. 1- Basic Principles, A.H.S. Ang, W.H. Tang, John Wiley& Sons, 1975.
Other Sources
Lecture notes and presentations
Course Schedules
Week
Contents
Learning Methods
1. Week
Role of uncertainty, reliability and probability in engineering
Oral Presentation
2. Week
Basic probabilistic approaches: events, set theory, calculation methods
Oral Presentation
3. Week
Calculation of risk and reliability
Oral Presentation
4. Week
Distribution of single and multiple random variables and modeling variability
Oral Presentation
5. Week
Distribution of single and multiple random variables and modeling variability
Oral Presentation
6. Week
Risk propagation, probability distributions and moments (mean and variance) from functions of random variables
Oral Presentation
7. Week
Risk propagation, probability distributions and moments (mean and variance) from functions of random variables
Oral Presentation
8. Week
Midterm Exam
Exam
9. Week
Central limit theorem
Oral Presentation
10. Week
Random sampling, parameter estimation and confidence intervals from collected data
Oral Presentation
11. Week
Tests for probabilistic distribution model
Oral Presentation
12. Week
Tests for probabilistic distribution model
Oral Presentation
13. Week
Monte-Carlo simulation
Oral Presentation
14. Week
Monte-Carlo simulation
Oral Presentation
15. Week
16. Week
17. Week
Assessments
Evaluation tools
Quantity
Weight(%)
Midterm(s)
1
40
Final Exam
1
60
Program Outcomes
PO-1
Adequate knowledge in mathematics, science and engineering subjects pertaining to the relevant discipline; ability to use theoretical and applied knowledge in these areas in the solution of complex engineering problems.
PO-2
Ability to formulate, and solve complex engineering problems; ability to select and apply proper analysis and modeling methods for this purpose.
PO-3
Ability to design a complex systemi process, device or product under realistic constraints and conditions, in such a way as to meet the desired results; ability to apply modern design methods for this purpose.
PO-4
Ability to select and use modern techniques and tools needed for analyzing and Solving complex problems encountered in engineering practice; ability to employ information technologies effectively.
PO-5
Ability to design and conduct experiments, gather data, analyze and interpret results for investing complex engineering problems or discipline specific research questions.
PO-6
Ability to work efficiently in intra-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary teams; ability to work individually.
PO-7
Ability to communicate effectivley, both orally and in writing; knowledge of a minimum of one foreign language; ability to write effective reports and comprehend written reports, prepare design and production reports, make effective presentations, and give and receive clear and intelligible instruction.
PO-8
Awareness of the need for lifelong learning; ability to access information, to follow developments in science and technology, and to continue to educate him/herself.
PO-9
Knowledge on behavior according ethical principles, professional and ethical responsibility and standards used in engineering practices.
PO-10
Knowledge about business life practices such as project management, risk management, and change management; awareness in entrepreneurship, innovation; knowledge about sustainable development.
PO-11
Knowledge about the global and social effects of engineering practices on health, environment, and safety, and contemporary issues of the century reflected into the field of engineering; awareness of the legal consequences of engineering solutions.
Learning Outcomes
LO-1
To gain knowledge in mathematics, science and engineering subjects pertaining to the relevant discipline; ability to use theoretical and applied knowledgein these areas incomplex engineering problems.
LO-2
To gain to identify, formulate, and solve complex engineering problems; ability to select and apply proper analysis and modeling methods for this purpose.
LO-3
To gain knowledge of utilizing the mathematics-based approaches to understand and evaluating the uncertainties and their risks in design and decision process.
LO-4
To gain knowledge on probabilistic theory to consider the variability in real life rather than the common deterministic approach.
