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Civil Engineering Main Page / Program Curriculum / Probability and Reliability in Engineering

Probability and Reliability in Engineering

Course CodeSemester Course Name LE/RC/LA Course Type Language of Instruction ECTS
CE0842 Probability and Reliability in Engineering 2/2/0 DE English 4
Course Goals
 To consider the ever-present uncertainties of an engineering design in determining the problem, obtaining the available information and its evaluation and application; introduction of the identification and/or minimization of unwanted outcomes (reliability) through probabilistic theory.
Prerequisite(s) -
Corequisite(s) -
Special Requisite(s) -
Instructor(s) -
Course Assistant(s) -
Schedule The course is not opened for this semester.
Office Hour(s) The course is not opened for this semester.
Teaching Methods and Techniques Lecture, discussion
Principle Sources

Probability Concepts in Engineering: Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2. Baskı, A.H.S. Ang, W.H. Tang, John Wiley& Sons, 2007.

Mühendislikte Güvenilirlik ve Risk Analizi, Mehmetçik Bayazıt, Birsen Yayınevi, 2007.

Mühendislikte Olasılık, İstatistik, Risk ve Güvenilirlik, Altay Gündüz, Küre Basım Yayım, 1996.

Probability Concepts in Engineering: Planning and Design, Vol. 1- Basic Principles, A.H.S. Ang, W.H. Tang, John Wiley& Sons, 1975.

Other Sources Lecture notes and presentations
Course Schedules
Week Contents Learning Methods
1. Week Role of uncertainty, reliability and probability in engineering Oral Presentation
2. Week Basic probabilistic approaches: events, set theory, calculation methods Oral Presentation
3. Week Calculation of risk and reliability Oral Presentation
4. Week Distribution of single and multiple random variables and modeling variability Oral Presentation
5. Week Distribution of single and multiple random variables and modeling variability Oral Presentation
6. Week Risk propagation, probability distributions and moments (mean and variance) from functions of random variables Oral Presentation
7. Week Risk propagation, probability distributions and moments (mean and variance) from functions of random variables Oral Presentation
8. Week Midterm Exam Exam
9. Week Central limit theorem Oral Presentation
10. Week Random sampling, parameter estimation and confidence intervals from collected data Oral Presentation
11. Week Tests for probabilistic distribution model Oral Presentation
12. Week Tests for probabilistic distribution model Oral Presentation
13. Week Monte-Carlo simulation Oral Presentation
14. Week Monte-Carlo simulation Oral Presentation
15. Week
16. Week
17. Week
Assessments
Evaluation tools Quantity Weight(%)
Midterm(s) 1 40
Final Exam 1 60


Program Outcomes
PO-1Adequate knowledge in mathematics, science and engineering subjects pertaining to the relevant discipline; ability to use theoretical and applied knowledge in these areas in the solution of complex engineering problems.
PO-2Ability to formulate, and solve complex engineering problems; ability to select and apply proper analysis and modeling methods for this purpose.
PO-3Ability to design a complex systemi process, device or product under realistic constraints and conditions, in such a way as to meet the desired results; ability to apply modern design methods for this purpose.
PO-4Ability to select and use modern techniques and tools needed for analyzing and Solving complex problems encountered in engineering practice; ability to employ information technologies effectively.
PO-5Ability to design and conduct experiments, gather data, analyze and interpret results for investing complex engineering problems or discipline specific research questions.
PO-6Ability to work efficiently in intra-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary teams; ability to work individually.
PO-7Ability to communicate effectivley, both orally and in writing; knowledge of a minimum of one foreign language; ability to write effective reports and comprehend written reports, prepare design and production reports, make effective presentations, and give and receive clear and intelligible instruction.
PO-8Awareness of the need for lifelong learning; ability to access information, to follow developments in science and technology, and to continue to educate him/herself.
PO-9Knowledge on behavior according ethical principles, professional and ethical responsibility and standards used in engineering practices.
PO-10Knowledge about business life practices such as project management, risk management, and change management; awareness in entrepreneurship, innovation; knowledge about sustainable development.
PO-11Knowledge about the global and social effects of engineering practices on health, environment, and safety, and contemporary issues of the century reflected into the field of engineering; awareness of the legal consequences of engineering solutions.
Learning Outcomes
LO-1To gain knowledge in mathematics, science and engineering subjects pertaining to the relevant discipline; ability to use theoretical and applied knowledgein these areas incomplex engineering problems.
LO-2To gain to identify, formulate, and solve complex engineering problems; ability to select and apply proper analysis and modeling methods for this purpose.
LO-3To gain knowledge of utilizing the mathematics-based approaches to understand and evaluating the uncertainties and their risks in design and decision process.
LO-4To gain knowledge on probabilistic theory to consider the variability in real life rather than the common deterministic approach.
LO-5To gain basic knowledge on the probability theory
Course Assessment Matrix:
Program Outcomes - Learning Outcomes Matrix
 PO 1PO 2PO 3PO 4PO 5PO 6PO 7PO 8PO 9PO 10PO 11
LO 1
LO 2
LO 3
LO 4
LO 5