Undergraduate
Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences
International Trade
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Course CodeSemester Course Name LE/RC/LA Course Type Language of Instruction ECTS
UTC0064 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 2/0/0 DE Turkish 4
Course Goals
 This course aims to teach how to choose the appropriate forecasting method under different demand conditions, to predict forecasting errors and to learn the relationship between forecast production planning. Students will learn about time series and time series estimation methods in this course.
Prerequisite(s) None
Corequisite(s) None
Special Requisite(s) None
Instructor(s) Assist. Prof. Dr. Hatice Nazan Çağlar
Course Assistant(s) Ress. Asst. Elanur Türküz
Schedule Çarşamba, 18:00 - 19:50, Sanal Sınıf Dersi (CATs3 üzerinden yapılacaktır)
Office Hour(s) Due to distance education, students need to contact their instructors via e-mail.
Teaching Methods and Techniques Lectures, power-point presentations, Discussion. 
Principle Sources Sevüktekin, M. & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2006). Ekonometrik Zaman Serisi Analizi: E-Views Uygulamalı. Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.

Çekerol, G. S. & Ulukan, A. (2012). Kantitatif Tahmin Yöntemleri. Nisan Yayınları. 

Yenersoy, G. (2015). Üretim Planlama ve Kontrol. Papatya Yayıncılık. 
Other Sources  Case studies and lecture notes to be given by the lecturer are among the other resources
Course Schedules
Week Contents Learning Methods
1. Week What is Time Series and Demand Forecasting? Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
2. Week The Importance of Forecast for Business Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
3. Week Qualitative Forecasting Methods Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
4. Week Delphi Method Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
5. Week Quantitative Estimation Methods Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
6. Week Stable Demand Methods Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
7. Week Stable Demand Methods Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
8. Week MIDTERM EXAM ONLINE EXAM
9. Week Increasing and Decreasing Demand Methods Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
10. Week Seasonal Demand Methods Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
11. Week Seasonal and Trend Including Forecasts Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
12. Week Estimating the prediction error Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
13. Week Estimating the tracking signal Online Lectures, power-point presentations, discussion
14. Week FINAL EXAM ONLINE EXAM
15. Week
16. Week
17. Week
Assessments
Evaluation tools Quantity Weight(%)
Midterm(s) 1 40
Homework / Term Projects / Presentations 1 10
Final Exam 1 50


Program Outcomes
PO-1OP-1. Comprehends both theoretical and applied subjects in international trade at the advanced level, and uses his/her knowledge when necessary.
PO-2OP-2. Analyses basic concepts and data related to International Trade and Economics by scientific methods, interprets those with analytically, and evaluates those with regard to economic issues.
PO-3OP-3. Express his/her thoughts, comments and evaluations related to International Trade discipline both in written and oral forms.
PO-4OP-4. Defines current problems, and proposes solutions which are supported by evidence and research based quantitative and qualitative data.
PO-5OP-5. Inspects how public and private sector enterprises engaged in trade activities operates in practice, and evaluates the continuities and the dynamism in these sectors.
PO-6OP-6. Defines and tracks local, regional (such as European Union or Middle East) and global issues from the point of political economics, and relates these issues to each other.
PO-7OP-7. Possesses sufficient knowledge in other disciplines related to International Trade (such as Economics, Finance, International Business and Law), and reports this information.
PO-8OP-8. Follows publications and research in International Trade, Globalisation and Financial Systems in the English language, and communicates with his/her colleagues internationally.
PO-9OP-9. Uses a second language (Russian, Chinese, etc.) at the intermediate level.
PO-10OP-10. Possesses ethical principles and scientific values in collection, interpretation and release of data.
Learning Outcomes
LO-1Increasing and decreasing demand forecast methods
LO-2Seasonal demand forecast methods
LO-3Calculating the estimation error
LO-4Understanding of forward estimation methods
LO-5Time series and estimation methods
LO-6Steady demand forecast methods
Course Assessment Matrix:
Program Outcomes - Learning Outcomes Matrix
 PO 1PO 2PO 3PO 4PO 5PO 6PO 7PO 8PO 9PO 10
LO 1
LO 2
LO 3
LO 4
LO 5
LO 6