Undergraduate
Faculty of Engineering and Architecture
Industrial Engineering
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Introduction to Probability

Course CodeSemester Course Name LE/RC/LA Course Type Language of Instruction ECTS
IE3101 3 Introduction to Probability 3/2/0 CC English 6
Course Goals
Students are expected to understand the basic concepts of probability theory and to apply this theory in the engineering field.
Prerequisite(s) MCB1002 - Calculus II
Corequisite(s) None
Special Requisite(s) Read, understand, formulate, explain, and apply mathematical statements, and state and apply important results in key mathematical areas (Calculus I and Calculus II).
Instructor(s) Professor Murat Ermiş
Course Assistant(s) Abdullah Osman
Schedule Theory: Monday, 09:00 - 12:00, 5C-12/14 Practice: Tuesday, 15:00 - 17:00, 4B-08/10
Office Hour(s) Wednesday:10:00 - 11:00, 2A-12
Teaching Methods and Techniques Lectures and recitation.
Principle Sources

Textbook: Douglas C. Montgomery, George C. Runger, "Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers", 6e ISV, 2014.


 

Lecture Notes: CATS

Other Sources

1. Sheldon M. Ross, "Introduction to Probability Models", Academic Press, 10th Edition, 2009.


 

2. Irwin Miller and Marylees Miller, “John E. Freund's Mathematical Statistics with Applications”, Pearson; 8th Edition, 2018.

Course Schedules
Week Contents Learning Methods
1. Week The Role of Probability and Statistics in Engineering Lectures and recitation
2. Week Sample Spaces and Events, Interpretations and Axioms of Probability, Addition Rules Lectures and recitation
3. Week Conditional Probability, Multiplication and Total Probability Rules, Independence Lectures and recitation
4. Week Bayes' Theorem Lectures and recitation
5. Week Random Variables Lectures and recitation
6. Week Discrete Random Variables, Probability Distributions and Probability Mass Functions, Cumulative Distribution Functions Lectures and recitation
7. Week Mean and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable, Discrete Uniform Distribution, Binomial Distribution Lectures and recitation
8. Week Midterm
9. Week Geometric and Negative Binomial Distributions , Poisson Distribution Lectures and recitation
10. Week Continuous Random Variables, Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions, Cumulative Distribution Functions, Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable, Continuous Uniform Distribution Lectures and recitation
11. Week Normal Distribution, Normal Approximation to the Binomial and Poisson Distributions, Exponential Distribution Lectures and recitation
12. Week Erlang and Gamma Distributions, Weibull Distribution Lectures and recitation
13. Week Two or more Random Variables, Covariance and Correlation, Common joint distributions Lectures and recitation
14. Week Linear Functions of Random Variables, General Functions of Random Variables Lectures and recitation
15. Week General Review Final
16. Week Final Week Final
17. Week Final Week Final
Assessments
Evaluation tools Quantity Weight(%)
Midterm(s) 1 30
Quizzes 6 20
Homework / Term Projects / Presentations 5 0
Final Exam 1 40


Program Outcomes
PO-1Ability to apply theoretical and practical knowledge gained by Mathematics, Science and their engineering fields and ability to use their knowledge in solving complex engineering problems.
PO-2Ability of determining, defining, formulating and solving complex engineering problems; for that purpose develop the ability of selecting and implementing suitable models and methods of analysis.
PO-3Ability of designing a complex system, process, device or product under real world constraints and conditions serving certain needs; for this purpose ability of applying modern design techniques
PO-4Ability of selecting and using the modern techniques and devices which are necessary for analyzing and solving complex problems in engineering implementations; ability of efficient usage of information technologies.
PO-5Ability of designing experiments, conducting tests, collecting data and analyzing and interpreting the solutions to investigate of complex engineering problems or discipline-specific research topics.
PO-6Ability of working efficiently in intra-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary teams; individual working ability and habits.
PO-7Ability of verbal and written communication skills; and at least one foreign language skills, ability to write effective reports and understand written reports, ability to prepare design and production reports, ability to make impressive presentation, ability to give and receive clear and understandable instructions
PO-8Awareness of importance of lifelong learning; ability to access data, to follow up the recent innovation in science and technology for continuous self-improvement.
PO-9Conformity to ethical principles; knowledge about occupational and ethical responsibility, and standards used in engineering applications.
PO-10Knowledge about work life implementations such as project management, risk management and change management; awareness about entrepreneurship and innovativeness; knowledge about sustainable development.
PO-11Knowledge about effects of engineering applications on health, environment and security in global and social dimensions, and on the problems of the modern age in engineering; awareness about legal outcomes of engineering solutions.
Learning Outcomes
LO-1Gains the ability to comprehend the basic probability concept, apply counting techniques and calculate the probability of an event.
LO-2Gains the ability to distinguish basic probability terminology such as random experiment, result, sample space, event, random variable, etc.
LO-3Gains the ability to construct a probability function, cumulative density function, probability mass function, or probability density function for a random variable and use them in problem-solving.
LO-4Gains the ability to use the concepts of mathematical expectation and variance.
LO-5Gains the ability to distinguish special probability functions and understand where/when to use them.
Course Assessment Matrix:
Program Outcomes - Learning Outcomes Matrix
 PO 1PO 2PO 3PO 4PO 5PO 6PO 7PO 8PO 9PO 10PO 11
LO 1
LO 2
LO 3
LO 4
LO 5